Strategy results shown on Form4 are simulated, using estimated fill prices.
They are provided for educational and research purposes only, are not investment advice, and are not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not indicate future results.
Each position is priced at the first market price available after the filing became public — the closing price if the filing was accepted before 4:00pm ET, otherwise the next session's opening price. These are estimates drawn from end-of-day market data.
Your actual fills will differ. The figures do not include commissions, bid-ask spreads, slippage or taxes, and they assume a position can be filled in full at the quoted price. In smaller or less liquid companies that assumption may not hold.
Each strategy starts with $100,000 on 3 January 2023 and follows its rules forward. Cash not held in a position is modelled as held in SPY, so the S&P 500 over the identical period is always shown alongside — the excess over the index is the meaningful comparison.
Results are net of no fees and reflect a single set of rules applied consistently. They are a model of what the strategy would have done, not a record of an account.
Each strategy is measured from its own first trade to the present, against the S&P 500 over that identical window. $100,000 start, idle cash in SPY. Annualised.
Every strategy we run is published, including periods where one trails the index. Figures are recalculated as new filings arrive and may be restated if we identify an error in how they were computed.
A single annualised figure hides how it was earned. One of these strategies made most of its return in a single year; the table below is the only place that is visible, which is why it is here.
| Year | Outsized Buys | Insider Breakout | Insider Dip Buys | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +44.6%* | +22.5%* | — | +11.2% |
| 2017 | +38.9% | +9.4% | — | +18.6% |
| 2018 | -28.4% | -19.1% | +5.7%* | -7.0% |
| 2019 | +68.6% | +67.6% | +21.7% | +28.6% |
| 2020 | +45.7% | +15.3% | +10.9% | +15.2% |
| 2021 | +23.2% | +37.5% | +28.7% | +28.7% |
| 2022 | -20.4% | 0.0% | -17.9% | -19.9% |
| 2023 | +30.5% | +24.7% | +22.8% | +24.8% |
| 2024 | +38.1% | +62.3% | +27.1% | +24.0% |
| 2025 | +39.5% | -2.2% | +14.3% | +16.6% |
| 2026 | +22.2% | +2.6% | +11.7% | +11.7% |
* Partial year — the book started mid-year, so it is not a full twelve months against the index. The S&P column is the full calendar year in every row. Worst peak-to-trough decline, marked daily: Outsized Buys 47.8% · Insider Breakout 52.3% · Insider Dip Buys 34.2%.
Filing data comes from SEC EDGAR and price data from third-party market data providers. We do not generate or verify the underlying filings, and we make no warranty that the information is complete, current or error-free.
Form4 is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer or financial planner. Nothing on this site is a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions and should consult a licensed professional before acting on anything you read here. See the full financial disclaimer and how the grades are calculated.
Figures update automatically. Last reviewed 23 August 2026.